The likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September is now seen near 100% after new data showed U.S. inflation increasing at a moderate pace in July and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he thought an aggressive half-point cut was possible given recent weak employment numbers.

Scott Helfstein, head of investment strategy at Global X, added that there’s “little evidence” tariffs are causing a meaningful rise in inflation at this point, noting that shelter and energy services like electricity and piped gas remain primary drivers.