A federal judge ordered special elections after earlier ordering the state to redraw the electoral map used to select justices, concluding the current configuration dilutes the power of Black voters.

Over the past decade or so, the VRA has been battered by a series of hits from the increasingly conservative high court. In 2013, the justices knocked out a key pillar of the law by eliminating “pre-clearance” requirements for advance approval of voting changes, including redistricting, in most or all of nine states and a smattering of localities.

Polling in off-year election cycles is challenging because it’s hard to know who will turn out to vote. This year, the polls significantly overestimated the Republicans in the Virginia and New Jersey governor’s races, which both had particularly high turnout for an off year. In 2021, polls had the opposite problem, as they overestimated Democrats.